Tuesday, June 26, 2012

No more peak oil!

What a relief.  We can rest easy.  As the Business Insider has informed us:

Rob Wile, Business Insider - Chart of the Day, 14 June 2012 (hat tip: NC)
Below is a graph that we believe cast serious doubt on peak oil theory — the idea that we are imminently in danger of exhausting the world's hydrocarbon supply.
"The world is not structurally short of hydrocarbon resources – as our data on proved reserves confi rms year after year – but long lead times and various forms of access constraints in some regions continue to create challenges for the ability of supply to meet demand growth at reasonable prices."

I am not sure if he is being intentionally dry -saying one thing while meaning another with a very neutral delivery.

The idea of peak oil is not that you run out of reserves, but that production becomes more difficult and costly, and at some point supply flow does begin to dwindle.  How many hydrocarbons are actually in existence is somewhat beside the point.

Is bullet point quote, seems to be a pretty reasonable working definition for peak oil.  You cannot get oil to the market at an affordable - reasonable if you will - price.


John D. Wheeler said...

Yeah, I'm seeing more and more of these straw-man arguments where they claim peak oil is something it's not and then argue against it, all the time supporting what peak oil really is.

I think we are reaching a peak on "peak oil denial". We are rapidly approaching the point where people can't afford to buy oil at a price where producers can afford to produce it.

Unfortunately once the peak in oil is undeniably past, it will almost completely be too late to do anything about it.

russell1200 said...

JW: Most of the original peak-oil scoffers were on the right. They simply blamed the Democrats for not allowing free reign on drilling, and now a free reign on hydaulic fracking, tar sands, etc.

Now I have noticed that some of the Democratic sources have realized that peak oil cuts into their environmental argument, and even more so argues against standard redistributionist policies.

If our current weather continues, presumably Global Warming will be next up for the bi-partizan denial.

Anne said...

Bellies full and their minds empty.

It is only logical (peak and pricing.) That's what amazes me the most I think.. that many see it as an unlimited source.. (if they give it any thought at all) or their go-to solution is electric. Worse.. the total lack of awareness of just how deeply everything we do, create, grow, medical, etc. is dependent on oil.

It's like trying to explain the world is round.

russell1200 said...

Anne: The question in my mind is how much time the switch to natural gas will buy us.

And then you have what looks like a much more rapid global warming onset. Let's hope it's just an anomally.

In general, most of it comes down to 10 billion (projected peak) ia a lot of people. Ten-billion people also getting wealthier and using more resources is numbing.

But nobody gives up their privledges easily, and I am not quiltless in this regard.