Electromagnetic Pulse(EMP)/Solar Flare Review Spectacular

For those who have missed our earlier reviews, a summary can be found here.  As far as I know, nobody got sick during Pandemic Week, so I feel safer continuing our themed reviews. 

The EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) apocalypse-in-progress novel is a relatively new phenomena.  The earliest popular novel associated with the effect is Streiber and Kunetka's Warday back in 1984.  A solar flare is a very similar phenomena, that is generated by the energy from a flare erupting from the sun.   Its effects are generally modeled after the the Solar Storm of 1859.

To simplify greatly, an electromagnetic pulse is a high energy (microwave, or otherwise) burst that is known to be variously disruptive to electronic devices and electrical systems.  We know that they work on a relatively small scale with various EMP-cannon, and EMP-bombs being used to disrupt electrical systems.  But note, these tactical weapons are as large or larger than the conventional devices they replace, and are not generally more effective, they are just less lethal.

The real harum scarum discussion starts with the use of a nuclear weapon set off high in the atmosphere to wipe out the electronic devices and electrical utility systems on a continental scale.

Note that not everyone buys into this scenario, and the detractor’s math is more precise than the proponents hypothesis.  The argument is not that pulse is not created, but that negative feedback loops greatly limit its area of effect.

Effect of the Fast Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse on the Electric Power Grid Nationwide: A Different View

Mario Rabinowitz, Electric Power Research Institute

From the abstract:

This paper primarily considers the potential effects of a single high-altitude nuclear burst on the U.S. power grid. A comparison is made between EMP and natural phenomena such as lightning. This paper concludes that EMP is no more harmful to the power grid than its counterparts in nature. An upper limit of the electric field of the very fast, high-amplitude EMP is derived from first principles.

The resulting values are significantly lower than the commonly presented values. Additional calculations show that the ionization produced by a nuclear burst severely attenuates the EMP.

From the conclusion:

Based upon the analyses presented in this paper and in Refs. [7-8], it appears highly improbable, if not impossible that the EMP from a single nuclear burst could blackout this nation's power grid. It would be practically impossible for the EMP to cause widespread damage to the U.S. transmission line system. With the exception of isolated cases, it appears highly unlikely that EMP could produce extensive damage to the U.S. distribution grid. A single nuclear device exploded at high altitude will not render vital electrical services inoperable across the entire United States as has been suggested in many media references.

Concurrent multiple bomb bursts will not have an additive TEMP effect, and will even interfere to produce less EMP than a single burst.

As I have noted previously, the EMP effects within the novels seem to derive much of their results by copying earlier novels, rather than looking into the research.  Warday was first and came out before a whole lot of in-public thought had been given to the problem.  The follow on novels all seem to have rather similar effects to Warday.  Typically all vehicles electronic systems are wiped out, even though the laboratory research shows that over 80% of vehicles re-stared by simply re-turning the ignition key.  It should also be noted that the sun is much more powerful than a hydrogen bomb, so some of the limitations noted for an EMP-strike might not apply.

As I noted in an earlier post (quoting myself):

The Official Report goes into details as to the immediate effect on vehicles. Automobiles that were turned off showed no damage, automobiles that were running cut off 10% of the time, but were immediately able to restart after coasting to a stop. In the case of trucks, one of the thirteen tested did have to be towed [p113]. While obviously disruptive, this is a far cry from the thousands immediately stranded on the highways. Further, it notes that the effects on most electronic medical devices would be limited.

The list of EMP and solar flare novels is relatively short.  Warday, in 1984,  features an EMP attack (along with more normal nuclear strikes), and was very popular in its day.  But the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 put a stop in the interest in nuclear war related survival tales.  By the time David Crawford (writing as halfast) picks up the thread in his online version of Lights Out, the theme has switched to EMP-vengeance by relatively small actors in the Middle East.  On the Solar Flare, end of matters, Larry Burkett's Solar Flare, is the first novel dealing with this phenomena that I am aware of.  O fcourse , the solar flare has an advantage that no human enemies are required.

In fiction, the value of either type is that it gets you to your collapse quickly.  Typical of these books, you’ve listened to your last FM radio Top Forty hit by the end of the first chapter.  Pandemics can also be used to get you there, but if you really want mayhem on the streets, you don’t want to get rid of your people too fast.  I have even seen a YA- zombie novel with an EMP agent- how cool is that? Ready Mix Zombies.

The one wrinkle  of late, has been the traveling disaster show.  Since EMPs/solar flare novels knock out everyone’s means of transportation, it stands to reason that some people will be stranded.  This allows the “stranded” to travel some great distance home, and view the progressive collapse of society in along the way.  This apocalypse-in-progress traveling road show has a lot of potential, and goes all the way back to Earth Abides (if not Mary Shelley’s Last Man), but is often hard to pull off.  The “hero” generally wanders around from one odd encounter to another with much of the action seeming rather forced and contrived.
Before we get started, I want to mention the two novels (both EMP) that we have already reviewed.

A lot of people put David Crawford's (aka Halffast) Lights Out  in their top 5 of prepping/survivalist adventure books. 

The other one is Terry DeHart’s The Unit, which also has some follow up tactical-sized nukes thrown into the mix as well.

Crawford's was extremely long in the way that only serialized online novels can be.  DeHart's was very uneven, and a little surreal at times.  But both of them in their own way seem to stick with you.

One Book I decided not to read is Amy Cross' The Grid: lack of time, and it looked to be rather similar in tone and quality to David Alexander's Death Pulse which we will be discussing.

How to get there

"You're sure to get somewhere if you only walk long enough..."

—The Cheshire Cat (Lewis Carrol)

Well, that is certainly to the point.  Note, that for the litigious out there, like my eight year old son, presumably a cat would not want to go anywhere where it had to swim.

Did you want more?  O.k.


How I Stay Productive and Get Massive Amounts of S**t Done
Jonathon Mead, Illuminated Mind, 23 February 2012 (Hat tip: MR)

The hardest part is often just starting. I’ve found that it’s especially hard for me to start when a task is difficult or complex. The more importance and weight a certain activity has in my life or business, the more I seem to put off starting.

However, if I can just get moving on it, even for a few minutes, it tends to get easier.

Because I know this about myself, rather than setting the intention to finish something, I resolve myself to start. The more often I start, the easier things get finished. Overcoming that first bit of inertia is the biggest challenge (just like getting started on a run, or the first push of getting a car moving).

Once things are moving, momentum is on your side.

Both of these tie in well with Mark Cuban's very good advice of,

"Don't follow your dreams, follow your effort."

Of course there is also the option of getting help.  One source:

Psalm 121

A song of ascents.

¹ I lift up my eyes to the mountains—

where does my help come from?

² My help comes from the LORD,

the Maker of heaven and earth.

³ He will not let your foot slip—
he who watches over you will not slumber;
⁴ indeed, he who watches over Israel
will neither slumber nor sleep.

⁵ The LORD watches over you—
the LORD is your shade at your right hand;
⁶ the sun will not harm you by day,
nor the moon by night.

⁷ The LORD will keep you from all harm—
he will watch over your life;
⁸ the LORD will watch over your coming and going
both now and forevermore.

Erosion of skilled labour: U.K. Edition

The articles subtitle says it all: A study by sociologists has revealed a sharp decline in the performance ability of Britain's lap dancers since the financial crash of 2008.

Lap dancing 'decline in standards' since financial crash

Telegraph (U.K.) 12 April 2012 (hat tip: MR)

The study by Teela Sanders and Kate Hardy from Leeds University warns of "de-skilling" across the industry. Dr Sanders said many dancers had "never even used a pole".

Researchers carried out a survey of 200 lap dancers, the largest study of its kind in the UK, it was reported.

Dr Sanders said there had been a "real change" to the "aesthetics of the dancers" as well as "the skills of flirting and chatting".

I have not read the study, but I gather from the comments at MR (see hat tip) the problem is an influx of new “talent” from the ranks of the previously employed elsewhere.


I used to work with people that work in the evening as bouncers at these clubs. They are not a happy environment. The typical club in the United States (and in the U.K. per the article) works a little like a beauty parlor – the service provider pays a “rent” to work, and keeps any overage on tips, drink splits, etcetera.


Also knowing an finance type who did an informal survey of the market, the money earned is pretty much in line with the typical performers education level – and this was before the current downturn. As with many entertainers, a very small percentage (the headline acts) draw a disproportionally large percentage of the industry income.

Rural survival: Rhodesia

Rhodesia is today known as Zimbabwe, a landlocked former British colony that lies on the northern border of South Africa, with Mozambique being between it and the ocean. The Rhodesia war of the 1970s was a guerilla war, funded by the former Soviet Union, but it had an economic collapse background to it as well.  

 

Overpopulation had made a relatively comfortable situation untenable.

The Tribal Trust Lands (TTLs) were reserved for blacks, and in particular black farmers only, but their population had exploded with better modern medical practices.  The Rhodesian population from 1900 to 1975 had grown 100%.  The TTLs absorbed much of this population growth initially, but as time went on urban areas began to expand in size.  As population began to outstrip opportunity, the Communists had fertile grounds to work with.

The vagaries of commercial agriculture had also put pressure on the commercial farmers.  The earlier farm abandonments had not been due to terrorists, but due to an inability to make a living at farming.  Farmers had been leaving the land.  At meetings of concerned farmers, few of them were younger than 50.  The remaining farmers were getting by, but there was no vast excess economic surplus with which on could rearrange the social fabric of society in a way that might decrease the tension.

The Farmers at War

Trever Grundy and Bernard Miller, Model Farming Publications, Salisbury, 1979 (hat tip: Fer Fal)

There’s an audible crackle, not loud or piercing, but as if someone is screwing up sweet paper close to your head, and like a string of green fairylights, tracers arc their way almost lazily towards the darkened homestead. Immediately, or so it seems, from behind an unlit window an FN rifle barks its harsh reply, followed by another and another. From a rock outcrop, slightly elevated so that attacking fire is aimed advantageously down on the farmhouse, a mere 100 meters away, the first mortar thumbs skywards. It soars high over the house and, thankfully for its occupants, explodes harmlessly in the bush. The long swish of a rocket, the deadliest of projectiles, is followed by an explosive thump. A hit! Hot lead ricochets off brick wall and rock outcrop, sparking, whining in a cacophony of crossfire.

As that first attacking bullet sped through the sound barrier cracking out its message of death, she awakes almost expectantly, rolls from the bed to the floor and crawls on hands and knees towards the radio alarm which will alert Security Forces and neighbouring families. There's no panic or hesitation. She's practiced this over and again. Night after night. . .just in case. But this is no practice...it's the real thing.

Her actions are automatic. Purely instinctive. She gropes for the alarm button, finds it and presses. She's oblivious to the high-pitched scream coming from the set, a scream of alarm that lasts a mere 12 seconds, but to her could be 12 long hours; oblivious too to bleeding legs, wounds inflicted as she labored across splintered glass. Only seconds, not long now. "Control.. .go", the disembodied voice comes over clearly, calmly. Reassuring. "Under attack from the north," she replies, her voice low but steady. No trace of hysteria, yet.. .that will come later.

"Small arms, mortar, I think. Maybe rockets, too."

Only a split second before she made that first move (was she really awake, or still asleep and motivated by some unseen hand. Or was it just another repetitive nightmare?) her husband's FN cracked out its first retaliatory burst, unaimed, unsighted. From their son's bedroom came a second burst and a third burst of automatic fire from their police guard. In another bedroom two small youngsters huddle together under their beds. It had been a great game to dive for cover when Dad shouted "bang, bang, you're dead." It was a game that saved their lives. They, too, were calm, solemn-eyed and seemingly oblivious to the shattering noise of battle.

The attack ends as suddenly as it started. Silence. Then a muted thump and the night sky is lit by an orange glow. Retreating, the raiders fire barns and equipment, drive off the farm labor and fire their compound.

In that attack 42 mortar bombs were dropped into the farm complex and approximately 2 000 rounds of small arms fire pumped into the farmhouse (p1).

Note the ammunition expenditure in what was a harassing raid by a group that travelled mostly on foot.

The typical Rhodesian farm home was probably always more substantially built than our modern suburban homes, but it became more substantial as time went on.

Before the war it was open house down on the farm. Rarely were windows or doors locked or even closed at night. The farmer and his family would go to town leaving their home open to friends and visitors who might drop in. Hospitably, there were usually cold beers in the fridge and plenty to eat in the deep freeze. It was a friendly, outgoing, trusting society. But not today.

In the early days of the war, protection was elementary, or even non-existent ("It won't happen to us" was the attitude) and sandbagged walls to protect windows, doors and other vulnerable parts of the building was thought to be sufficient. Bitter experience disproved this, and now many of the protective measures employed are highly sophisticated and almost impregnable.

Sandbags have been discarded and permanent, specially strengthened outer walls encircle many homesteads. These not only screen the house but provide space for bunkers and firing positions. Every farmhouse has a safe area which has no windows or doors opening to the outside and must be easily accessible from the sleeping quarters. Some of these are mini "forts" within the farm fortress, built of extra strong quarry stone, elevated to give a good all-round defensive view, equipped with arms, ammunition, radio communications, emergency lighting, food stocks and sealed from the rest of the house by armor-plated and fire-proof steel doors.

Variations on the theme of homestead defenses, both simple and sophisticated, are many. The "soft target" is now a tougher nut to crack (p14),

"First came the fences round our homes. An awful eyesore we felt they would be but who, today, would be without their fence. They give a limit to our gardens which in the past have tended to encroach upon our husbands' farming lands. They are an ideal way of restraining our dogs from hunting; a maxi playpen for small children and a better support for sweetpeas has yet to be devised.

After the fences came the grenade screens on the windows. A perfect excuse for not cleaning the windows — our house staff love them.

The next step was the protective walls around our beds. They may cut out the view but are marvelous for hanging photographs and the endless posters with which our children surround themselves.

The final stage is wearing a gunbelt round the waist. A great posture aid — it really makes you hold your 'turn' in (p21).

The attacks generally came quickly and because of local defenses that would eventually arrive to retaliate, of short duration

The Storrers have been attacked twice by terrorists on the farm in the last 12 months. The second attack, in February, virtually destroyed the upper story of their home and scared off their entire workforce, most of them, Peter believes, permanently.

The first at Christmas last year was beaten off by the Storrers, their twin daughters, aged 20, and their boyfriends who were both armed. The youngest Storrer, aged 10, loaded fresh magazines for his father's rifle. It was a sharp, but short, shoot-out which ended when the terror gang fled.

In February, Peter and Jane were alone. Jane was standing on the stairs when a terrorist 82 mm mortar penetrated the roof, exploding in the upstairs rooms. Fortunately, Jane was unharmed, which her husband believes is nothing short of miraculous. That night Peter, helped by Jane, fired more than 400 rounds back at the terrorists, before they withdrew.

The morning brought no relief for the Storrers. Their entire workforce, some of whom had worked for Peter and Jane for more than 20 years, had fled. Their cook, who had served the family for 14 years and watched the children grow up, had also disappeared. For the next three weeks Peter and Jane ran the farm themselves while friends in Salisbury and elsewhere tried to recruit new farm workers (p 15).

It is important to note that while there is a lot of literature that shows the bravery and determination of the Rhodesians and their scouts, that in the end they lost.

Just as the (mixed) agricultural Apache lost to the nomadic Comanche in the 1740s.  The Rhodesian farmers were bound to loose eventually if they could not strike damagingly at the base of more mobile attackers.  Since in this case the attackers were part of their own needed, but greatly overpopulated, work force, there was no effective military solution.  Without the economic resources to make other arrangements, the loss was inevitable.

It is also important to note that the urban areas were generally much safer than the rural areas.  This was not an occupation of a hostile foreign nation, so the guerillas were not going to be planting landmines/IEDs in the middle of a city street.  The faster reaction time of police forces within the urban areas, and likely the greater economic opportunities kept those areas quitter.  As Fer Fal has noted –possibly as too much of a truism – rural areas are not always safer than urban ones.

Rhodesian Leopard Security vehicle - not the measures (angled bottom plates)  to reduce the effectiveness of IEDs. from wikipedia

Book Review Roundup 4

This is what is referred to as a review roundup.  Normally they come about shortly after a series of reviews, but this one was delayed due to earlier technical difficulties.  The new blogger seems to be handling table-pastes from Microsoft Word better, so I went ahead and posted this one before it changed its mind.  You will note that I got rid of the Amazon link column.  The links are in the reviews in any case and it allowed me to but down the full name of the book.

Note, as described below, the ratings Reality and Readability are not intended as criticisms, but more as guidelines to style.  To see whether I enjoyed a book or not, you will have to look at the review.

Review Link	Author	Type	Disaster	Real	Read
Pandemic Week
The Patron Saint of Plagues	Barth Anderson	AP, SF	P, EC	7	5
Breakdown	Kathrine Hanna	PA	P	7	6
Pandemic Dawn	B.A. Shields	AP	P, Z	3	6
I Spied A Pale Horse	Mark Timlin	AP	P	4	6
Dreamer's Island	Gretchen Hummel	C	P	2	5
The Colony	Mary Vigliante	PA	P	1	4
What Came After	Sam Winston	PA	P	3	4
Survivors	Terry Nation	AP	P	6	6
Earth Abides	George Stewart	AP	P	5	6
Empty World	John Christopher	AP	P	4	6
Retrieved From the Future	John Symour	AP	PO	5	7
Holding Their Own	Joe Nobody	AP	EC, NP	7	6
China Tidal Wave	Wang Lixiong	AP	N, NP, EC	4	5
Reawakening Eden	Vivi Andrew	PA, R	D	5	7
These I Will Bring	Risa  Bear	C	PO, GW	7	5
Love in the Ruins	Walker Percy	AP	W, EC	1	2
Tobacco Stained Mountain Goat	Andrez Bergen	PO	EC, GW	2	2
The Pesthouse	Jim Crace	C	D, GW	3	5
Lights Out	David Crawford	AP	E	7	4
Summer of the Apocalypse	James Van Pelt	C	D	2	5
The Star Fraction	Ken MacLeod	AP	NP	5	4
Daybreak Zero	John Barnes	AP	NN, NP	3	2
Malevil	Robert Merle	AP	N	5	6
Directive 51	John Barnes	AP	NN, NP	3	3
Survivors	John W Rawles	AP	EC	4	4
REAMDE	N. Stephenson	NoA	-	5	5
Salvation City	Sigrid Nunez	AP, L	D	3	4
Salvage	Robert Edric	AP, L	GW,EC	6	3
Apocalypse Law	John Grit	AP	D	7	7
Oil Dusk	Cape,  Buckner	AP	PO, EC	6	6
Afterlight	Alex Scarrow	PA	PO, NP	7	7
End of the Age	Ervin Sim	PO, SF	G	3	3
YellowCake Spring	Guy Salvidge	AP	GW, EC	6	6
I Sniper	Stephen Hunter	NoA	-	6	7
Soft Apocalypse	Will McIntosh	AP, SF	B, PO, EC, GW	5	6
Prelude	Kurt Cobb	NoA	-	5	5
World Ends at Hickory Hollow	Ardath Mayhar	AP	N	5	5
Ship Breaker	Paolo Bacigalupi	C, SF, YA	PO, GW, B	4	6
Red Queen	Honey Brown	AP	D	7	7
Things We Didn't See Coming	Stvn Amsterdam	AP, L	EC, D	6	7
The Windup Girl	Paolo Bacigalupi	C, SF	PO, GW, B	4	7
Kingdom of Four Rivers	Guy Salvidges'	C, SF	GW, PO, NP	4	6
Far North	Marcel Theroux	PA	GW	5	6
The Road	Crmc McCarthy	PA	PD	6	6
Post-Apocalypse Dead Letter Office	Nathan Poell	AP, PA	W	5	5
The Profession	Stphn Pressfield	NoA	-	7	6
Operation Serf	Chris Sullins	AP, M	EC, NP	7	4
Into the Forest	Jean Hegland	AP, L	EC	7	5
The Witch of Hebron	James H Kunstler	AP	PO, GW	5	4
Random Acts of Senseless Violence	Jack Womack	AP, L	EC	5	4
Crossing the Blue	Holly Jean Buck	AP	GW	5	5
The Fall of Eden	Richard Michaels	AP	N	7	2
Last Light	Alex Scarrow	AP	PO, NP	7	7
The Unit	Terry DeHart	AP	N,E	6	4
The Things That Keep Us Here	Carla Buckley	AP	D	7	6
The Burning Hills	Louis L’Amour	NoA	-	6	5
Emergency	Neil Strauss	NoA	-	-	6
Patriots	John  Rawles	AP, M	EC	7	4
This World We Live In	Susan Pfeffer	AP, YA	M, V	6	5
The Dead and Gone	Susan Pfeffer	AP, YA	M, V	7	6
Life As We Knew It	Susan Pfeffer	AP, YA	M, V	7	6
Long Voyage Back	Luke Rhinehart	AP	N	7	5
Three Mokes East	Philip Revene	C	EC	5	5
Greybeard	Brian Aldiss	PA, SF	W	4	3
No Blade of Grass	John Christopher	AP	PD	5	5
Reviewed Earlier
A Distant Crossing	Thomas Park	AP	EC, NP	5	4
New Coastal Times	Donna Callea	AP	GW	5	5
Raggedy Edge	Michael S. Turnlund	AP	EC, NP	5	3
Gardener Summer	Nova	AP	EC	6	5
Good News	Edward Abbey	PA	GW	3	4
The Jakarta Pandemic	Steven Konkoly	AP	D	7	6
The Noah Countdown	B.T. Post	AP	EC, GW, NP	6	5
But Not for Long	Michelle Widgen	AP, L	PO, GW	7	7
Partial Reviews
One Second After (partial)	Doris Lessing	AP, L	EC	5	4
One Second After (partial)	Wm R. Forstchen.	AP	E	6	4

Disaster	N= Nuclear
	E= EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse)
	D= Pandemic Disease
	PD= Plant Disease
	B= Biotechnology
	PO= Peak Oil
	NP= Nefarious plotters trying to bring the world down
	EC= Economic Collapse (other than peak oil)
	NN= Nanotechnology
	V= Volcano
	M= Meteor or Comet strike
	GW= Global Warming
	W= Weird Science G= God or supernatural forces
	z= Zombies
Real	Realistic in tone - is it trying to portray an expected future.
	7 = yes this will happen 4= barely possible1 = strong elements of fantasy
	In most cases, where the effect is not ongoing, I am not factoring in unlikely disaster types.
Read	Readability = is it an easy book to read.
	7 = page turner; 4= somewhat enjoyable 1= challenging; literary works often tend toward the challenging.
	Note that you will enjoy a "4" if it is your type of book, but probably hate it if not.