A lot could happen between now and then, but that great big gusher of oil known as Saudi Arabia could become a net importer of oil by 2030. They are already using up all the natural gas that they produce.
Saudi oil well dries up
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph (U.K.), 5 September 2012 (hat tip: NC)
The basic point – common to other Gulf oil producers – is that Saudi local consumption is rocketing. Residential use makes up 50pc of demand, and over two thirds of that is air-conditioning. The Saudis also consume 250 liters per head per day of water – the world's third highest (which blows the mind), growing at 9pc a year – and most of this is provided from energy-guzzling desalination plants.
All this is made far worse across the Gulf by fuel subsidies to placate restive populations.
The Saudis already consume a quarter of their 11.1m barrels a day of crude output. They are using more per capita than the US even though their industrial base as a share of GDP is much smaller.
The country already consumes all its gas. (Neighboring Kuwait is now importing LNG gas from Russia….
If you go through the link, and look at the charts, you will see that this is a strictly demand-side story: no peak oil required.