Monday, December 10, 2012

It's not getting cooler

The latest goals in green house gas discussions is to set targets that will limit the increase in global temperatures to 2 degrees.

One problem with those goals is that current projections show a much more drastic increase.

Scientists Forecast Dramatic Temperature Increase
Christoph Siedler, Spiegel,  3 December 2012 (hat tip: NC)

Since 2010, the official goal of negotiations has been limiting the increase in the earth's temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), when compared to pre-industrial values, by the year 2100. Small island nations, who want to keep the increase even lower, have been pushing for a goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. But scientists are certain that this can hardly be achieved any longer.
And now a new study has shown just how unrealistic the 2-degree goal is. "If we keep going on as we have been, it will be 5 degrees," says co-author Glen Peters, who works at Norway's Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO). And scientists agree that such a dramatic warming of the earth's temperature would have devastating consequences.

Five-degrees Celsius is around 9 degrees Fahrenheit.  That is a lot hotter.  The U.S. and Europe, mostly because of the ongoing economic situation is reducing its carbon emissions, but China has been more than making up the difference.
I have always felt that the race was on between the peak oil crowd and the global warming folks.  I still lean a little toward peak oil getting us first - mostly because that is a simple math issue - but the race is 'heating up' so to speak.


Degringolade said...

Been actually Out studying this issue. Maps and theories and numbers and the works.

Now, I am just a tyro at this game, but it appears to me that the peak oil crowd will win handily, which will change the game for the global warming crowd.

It will be interesting, but the time frame is such that I won't see the end of the process, so it will be up to my children (or perhaps children's children) to mark the passage of the middle empire.

Kelly Robinson said...

I don't know what's going to happen, and I admit that I don't understand the science behind global warming very well. I DO know that the scenarios make for some outstanding reading.

russell1200 said...


I'd bet you a dollar, but the dollar wouldn't be worth anything. I guess we'd have to bet a can of gas versus a block of ice!

Kelly: I very much agree. The hothouse storyline makes for a good start to a soft apocalyptic tale. And of course having good materials to read is important.