James Hamilton at
Econbrowser has a very good piece (with charts) on where Saudi Oil production has been and where it may go. He is one of the few economists I have seen that takes peak oil issues seriously.
What Will Saudi Arabia Do?
One key question in determining the impact of instability in Libya and elsewhere on world oil markets is how much other countries can and will increase production to offset the shortfall.
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Saudi oil production looks quite different over the last few years.... The kingdom's production actually declined between 2005 and 2007. Although it subsequently increased, at the peak of oil prices in July of 2008 Saudi production was essentially only back to where it had been in 2005. The failure of Saudi production to increase between 2005 and 2008 in the face of booming demand for oil from the newly industrialized economies was in my opinion a key reason for the dramatic increase in oil prices over that period.
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