Return of Nuclear Winter

A recent series of studies,  An Assessment of the Extent of Projected Global Famine Resulting From Limited, Regional Nuclear War by Ira Helfand, MD , and  Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts by A. Robock1, et al, has begun a discussion of the possibility of sufficient global cooling to cause massive hunger and famine and possible follow up of pandemic diseases that follow the weakening of the population.  This is not the all-in global freeze over portrayed in the Carl Sagan mid-1980s scenarios, but more of a “just like Krakatau” scenario.

Because they know (sort of) the effects of explosive 1815 Krakatau explosive 1815, they have based their model around the idea of setting up a nuclear event/scenario  to  Krakatau.

There are a couple of problems with their scenarios:

·         To get Krakatau equivalence they model for “as few as” 100 15kt Hiroshima-sized bombs:  50 being used by each size.  The difficulty here is that within their limited war scenario, the are only a few likely participants.  China and India have enough bombs with enough range.  Israel has enough bombs, but not enough range.  The British, French, Americans, and Russians have enough bombs, but are likely to use a lot more than the scenario calls for: thus making the concern of even limited usage moot.  The rub is that Pakistan, and North Korea do not appear to have enough bombs to get to the 50 bomb total.

·         They also state that these bombs are directed at urban centers with their very heavy fuel load being added into the cloud plume.  This makes the 15kt notation somewhat moot.  But it is unlikely that even the majority of any countries bombs would be directed at population centers.   All of the likely fighting powers in this scenario have very large armed forces that will take at least some of the bombs and missiles.   Air fields will also be targeted in the hope of catching some of the bombs on the ground. 

·         For cloud dispersion and continuity, the war is postulated to occur in the subtropics.  This would dampen the strength of a North Korea (with presumably US response) scenario.

What is to like about the scenarios:

·         They are using historical examples of events that did occur, Krakatau, the Bengal famine of 1943 to model the event.  While far from perfect, they are likely to give some more rational bounds for what may occur rather than taking small events (like distant EMP events) and scaling up.

·         Some of their modeling is applicable to far more scenarios than simply an exchange of bombs.  A temporary shift in climate (as occurred in the 1890s), or another mega-volcanic explosion would also bring similar scenarios.

·         Finally, it is fairly obvious, that more countries will attempt to get nuclear weapons, so over time the possible scenarios will increase.  Further, retaliatory strikes on behalf of super power clients also become more likely: US versus Iran being a very likely one.  However, as a non-regional antagonist, the super powers would have less interest in going after population centers.

What is some of the possible “fallouts”

·         Global grain stocks have been trending low over the last decade.  They are often closer to the 50 day level, versus the 100+ level more common in the 1990s.  The ill effects of Krakatau were alleviated by extremely strong harvest in the year prior to its occurrence.  With the shifting toward using food as fuels (ethanol) we are not likely to have large reserves on hand.

·         As Helfand point out, when there is a sudden threat to supply, hording itself will often cause the supply problems.  Three million people died in the Great Bengal Famine of 1943 the food supply only dropped 5%.  But the Japanese had conquered Burma and eliminated the possibility that there would be “make-up” shipments from this source.  This caused food to be priced beyond the range of many people.   In a global panic (as recently happened with wheat) many countries are likely to shut down exports to other countries. 

·         Note that this cooling is probably not going to be all that helpful with regards to negating global warming as much of it is coming from directly blocking the sunlight.  A warmer globe might reduce some of the frost damage, but the temperature cool off will be much greater (-1.25°C versus +.7°C) than the last centuries warming, and it is hard to get a lot of photosynthesizing without sunlight.

·         The effects of radiation and fallout are a bit sketch to predict in such a loose scenario.  However, it is very possible that any famine will be exacerbated by crop lands being poisoned by fallout.

·         In some scenarios, oil producing countries will be effected which will cause a drop in oil production, and further direction of food to fuel. It should be recalled that at the maximum drain down rate, it is very possible for the US Armed Forces to use all of the strategic reserves available if there is a war going on.

There are an estimated 800 million people worldwide who already suffer malnutrition.  Five million children die from malnutrition even in a “normal” year.  These people very likely will be priced out the market and are very unlikely to survive.  With something as large as a 10% drop, many more if not killed outright, will become weakened and subject to famine.  Famine after Krakatau lead to an outbreak of typhus in Europe in 1816.

Commodity markets are very thinly traded compared to their underlying markets.  Shifts of money out of one sector of finance (holders of debt) into the commodity can have oversized effects on pricing.  The suspicion that Goldman Saks was behind the recent run up in oil pricing were not completely fantastical hypothesis.  The multiplicative effect of a globally connected world finance added to the usual effects of hording allow the possibility of exception fast and large price swings.

And in a market economy, if you have enough money, you have don’t have food.

From A. Robock et al (2007):

War and Poets

Although not necessarily the biggest concern at any one time, if enough weapons are fired of in anger or fear, there is always that smaller chance of complete finality.

Alan Seeger was an American poet who volunteered to fight for France in World War 1.  He wanted to die a young glorious death.  A German machine gunner granted his with in 1916.

I Have a Rendezvous with Death . . .

 I have a rendezvous with Death
At some disputed barricade,
When Spring comes back with rustling shade
And apple-blossoms fill the air —
I have a rendezvous with Death
When Spring brings back blue days and fair.

 It may be he shall take my hand
And lead me into his dark land
And close my eyes and quench my breath —
It may be I shall pass him still.
I have a rendezvous with Death
On some scarred slope of battered hill,
When Spring comes round again this year
And the first meadow-flowers appear.

God knows 'twere better to be deep
Pillowed in silk and scented down,
Where Love throbs out in blissful sleep,
Pulse nigh to pulse, and breath to breath,
Where hushed awakenings are dear . . .
But I've a rendezvous with Death
At midnight in some flaming town,
When Spring trips north again this year,
And I to my pledged word am true,
I shall not fail that rendezvous.



Shell Cases Along Roadside

The Collapse of Empires: The First Dark Ages

The 1200 BC Mediterranean Collapse was historically one of the most impressive collapses.  The two bi-polar powers of Egypt and Hittite Empires (possible candidate for the Trojans)  both collapsed, along with Crete, and the Dark Age Greeks of the Trojan Wars.  Massive dimly understood migrations of large groups of people crossed borders and attacked the larger wealthier lands.

From  N.K. Sandars The Sea Peoples: Warriors of the ancient Mediterranean  Revised 1985 edition:

An epoch of prosperity and comparative stability throughout the East Mediterranean and the Near East had depended upon an equilibrium that held between the two major powers, Egypt and Hittite Anatolia [what Turkey was called before the Turks showed up]; and it virtually ended with the death of Pharaoh Ramesses II around 1224, and of Tudhaliyas IV, the last really powerful Hittite king, a few years later.  The years from around 1220 to 1150 BC saw the collapse of Egyptian influence in the Levant, the total ruin of the Hittite Empire in Anatolia, with the abandonment of their capital Hattusas (modern Bagazkoy), and widespread destruction of cities in the Levant, Cyprus and mainland Greece. A long period of absolute decline and comparative isolation, whose ferocity is hard to explain, had set in. 

In the Aegean the Dark Age lasted till the end of the 9^th century, and in Anatolia very nearly as long.  Egypt, though enfeebled, maintained a semblance of civilization.  In the Levant the eclipse was less prolonged but none the less real, while Israelites, Philistines, and Aramaeans were fighting for the old Canaanite strongholds.  The evidence is easy to see in sacked cities, tumbled walls, broken communications, depopulation, and deprivation.

Why did this happen?  Many explanations have been tried and few have stood.  Unparalleled series of earthquakes, wise spread crop failures and famine, massive invasion from the steppe, the Danube, the desert-all may played some part; but they are not enough.  Catastrophes punctuate human history but they are generally survived without too much loss…(p11).

Economic Danger Points

There was a large increase in population in Messenia [speaking here of Crete in particular] …during the Middle Helladic period.  A peak was reached in the later 13^th century just before the troubles…This lead to the use of marginal land instead of good land and to reclamation work like the drainage of Lake Coppais in Boetia.  Some of the new Late Helladic sites in Messenai are on very poor land indeed.  This must have been followed by the division of estates into ever smaller lots.  The tablets tell of the diminutive size of many holdings and quarrels over ownership…

We find in Mycenaean Greece a dangerous concentration of a single crop, grain in Messenia, flocks and wools in Crete…the long period of prosperity and stability seems to have encouraged the production of high-yield crops like wheat, barley and the raising…of sheep.  Government was highly centralized, depending on a network of roads connecting with distant and  peripheral areas which are essential to its survival.  Strict accounting was also essential so that records could be kept of surpluses in one area to be set against deficits in another.  The tablets are this accounting system…

The rulers of Pylos and Mycenae lived in a luxury that is a reflection of the greater luxury of Memphis and Hattusas, of Ugarit and Enkomi.  Such wealth renders the possessor highly vulnerable, particularly when it depends on foreign relations and the availability of certain raw materials such as tin and gold…The fact is that the Mycenaean kingdoms were over-specialized, over-Dependant on central bureaucracies.  Three danger-points were to become acutely sensitive as the years of the 13^th century ran out: the high population, dependence on the palace, and over-specialized economy (p77-78).

From William J. Burroughs' Climate Change in Prehistory

The climate upheaval appears to have had widespread ramification for ancient civilizations, occurred between 3.5 and 2.5 kya. Across Europe colder wetter weatherer  set in around 3.4 kya and the glaciers in the Alps started to expand.  In the northern Scotland there is distinct and large scale shift to wetter climatic conditions.  The transition appears to have occurred abruptly, possibly over a decadal to century timescale.  broad correlations with deep-sea sediment records suggests that the transition may reflect colder sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.  At the same time the eastern Mediterranean cooled markedly, initially in the form of colder inters, which probably led to an increasing incidence of drought in the region, and ushered in the next Dark age.

The changes appear to have triggered large-scale demographic movements that are usually associated with the "Sea Peoples"

The Trojan Wars themselves are sometimes linked this movement of peoples.  The last major battles of a collapsing society are very likely to be immortalized in song, and we simply have the luck to have a record of it.  The various tales of Odysseus wandering through a collapsing world would correlate closely with the Arthurian Knight's adventures in a much later collapsing world.

Odysseus and Ajax (Louvre)

A World Without Antibiotics

ht Infectious Greed

From a World Health Organization  interview with a top immunologist on the subject of super-bugs, NDM1, & antimicrobial resistance: [-]

Q: What’s special about this new type of resistance labelled as NDM1?

A: NDM1 is an enzyme that confers resistance to one of the most potent classes of antibiotics, known as carbapenems, but what has been observed is different in many ways to what we have seen to date. This new resistance pattern has been reported in many different types of bacteria compared to previously and at least one in 10 of these NDM1-containing strains appears to be pan-resistant, which means that there is no known antibiotic that can treat it. A second concern is that there is no significant new drug development for antimicrobials. Third, this particular resistance pattern is governed by a set of genes that can move easily from one bacterium to another. Fourth, NDM1 has been found in the most commonly encountered bacterium in the human population, E. coli, which is the most common cause of bladder and kidney infections. A further concern is that of the two drugs potentially capable of treating an infection due to one of these new multiresistant strains, one of them, colistin, causes toxic effects to the kidney in about a third of people.

Q: Is this the doomsday scenario of a world without antibiotics?

A: Unfortunately yes, with these new multiresistant NDM1-containing strains and their potential for worldwide spread. Doctors will face a terrible dilemma when a pregnant woman develops a kidney infection that spills over into the bloodstream with a pan-resistant strain containing NDM1 and there are no treatment options. We are essentially back to an era with no antibiotics [Emphasis added].