Chinese Collapse

The idea that China is in a bubble economy has been a back sheet story for some time.  I could go back and dig out an amazing number of very details stories.  Although it is hard to remember it now, Japan also seemed like very much the same type of juggernaut back in the 1980s.  The dystopian movie Blade Runner (trailer) had Los Angelos covered with Japanese signs and people.  Today with and aging and shrinking population they might consider borrowing some of our Latin American emigres.

Although it is not clear that this is the exact dynamic here, the boom and bust cycles are likely to start coming at a much more rapid pace as the multiplier of world populating and consumption intersects with available remaining resources (per capita usage x total population versus existing resources + newly found resources).

Chinese Collapse NYT

For nearly two years, China’s turbocharged economy has raced ahead with the aid of a huge government stimulus program and aggressive lending by state-run banks.

But a growing number of economists now worry that China — the world’s fastest growing economy and a pillar of strength during the global financial crisis — could be stalled next year by soaring inflation, mounting government debt and asset bubbles.

Chinese Unemployed Graduates NYT

BEIJING — Liu Yang, a coal miner’s daughter, arrived in the capital this past summer with a freshly printed diploma from Datong University, $140 in her wallet and an air of invincibility.

Her first taste of reality came later the same day, as she lugged her bags through a ramshackle neighborhood, not far from the Olympic Village, where tens of thousands of other young strivers cram four to a room.

Unable to find a bed and unimpressed by the rabbit warren of slapdash buildings, Ms. Liu scowled as the smell of trash wafted up around her. “Beijing isn’t like this in the movies,” she said.

More Unemployed Graduates World Socialist Web

China has a huge number of unemployed college graduates. In July, China’s ministry of education revealed that over 25 percent, or roughly 1.5 million of the 6.3 million students who had graduated this year, were unemployed. Of those who graduated last year, 800,000 remained unemployed.

These jobless graduates are part of a wider employment crisis. China’s first-ever “White Paper” on employment statistics was released on September 7. Entitled China’s Human Resources, it reported that the number of registered unemployed is 9.2 million or 4.3 percent of the urban labour force.

One example below:

China's High Tech Graduate's Ant Colony

The Chinese Ant Colony Newsweek (Picture Montage):

Nuclear Terrorism in the Global Village

At Global Guerrillas the Author spoke at a conference at Pitt University about Violent Armed Groups: A Global Village

I picked up a long paper (via search engining) from this conference about the capabilities of non-indigenous terrorists within the United States and Western Europe in general by Michael Kenney  titled  Organizational Learning and Islamic Militancy (2009)

from page 116:

What explains the sloppiness? Why do terrorists—including both experienced veterans that received the most sophisticated instruction Al Qaeda had to offer, and inexperienced novices with no formal training whatsoever—keep making basic errors in operational tradecraft? Distinguishing between the local, contextual “know-how” of mētis and the general, abstract “know-what” of techne can help us answer these questions. While both types of knowledge are necessary for terrorism, this research suggests that mētis is often critical for carrying out specific attacks and that terrorists often lack the practical knowledge needed to execute their attacks more effectively.

What both veteran and novice terrorists in Britain and Spain often lack is a knack for clandestine tradecraft, and by extension urban terrorism. In many cases, militants possess a limited amount of terrorist techne, which they may have acquired through training “camps,” where the quality of instruction varies considerably, or from knowledge-based artifacts, including the frequently flawed instructional manuals that are found online.

Less frequently, militants may have acquired some of their own hard-earned mētis in political violence, typically by fighting in one or more “jihads” raging in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, or Iraq. But this fighting knowledge is generally limited to guerrilla warfare. Unfortunately for terrorists, and fortunately for the rest of us, mētis in guerrilla warfare does not necessarily translate into effective urban terrorism in Western countries, which involves appropriate local knowledge, street smarts, and a knack for clandestine operations.

Of course what applies to IEDs and self immolation attacks, applies even more so to the nuclear terrorist scenarios often worried about.  The difficult logistics in pulling off such attack almost assure that some sort of professional assistance would be required.  But many foreign armed forces are themselves lacking in the logistical knowledge that we generally presume to be present.  I have heard enough stories about small client navy’s submarines that spend all their time in port, to know that there is a big difference between some tactical level training by the unit seller, and actually being able to run a navy at any sort of operational level.  If the Germans wanted to send a diesel electric submarine – mother ship combination armed with a couple of nuclear tipped torpedoes I would be very worried.  The North Koreans? Worried, but not as much.