David Leonhardt, New York Times, 23 October 2012 (not ht)
Many of the bedrock assumptions of American culture — about work, progress,
fairness and optimism — are being shaken as successive generations worry about
the prospect of declining living standards. No question, perhaps, is more
central to the country’s global standing than whether the economy will perform
better on that score in the future than it has in the recent past.
The causes of income stagnation are varied and
lack the political simplicity of calls to bring down the deficit or avert
another Wall Street meltdown. They cannot be quickly remedied through
legislation from Washington. The biggest causes, according to interviews with
economists over the last several months, are not the issues that dominate the
political debate.
At the top of the list are the digital
revolution, which has allowed machines to replace many forms of human labor,
and the modern wave of globalization, which has allowed millions of low-wage
workers around the world to begin competing with Americans.
Not much further down the list is education, probably the country’s most
diffuse, localized area of government policy. As skill levels have become even
more important for prosperity, the United States has lost its once-large global lead in
educational attainment.
They give
immigration a white wash. Ignoring its
effect in specific areas –construction in particular – buy lumping in the data
with larger aggregate totals that dilute rather large effects into mere
percentage points. In construction immigrants
tended to dominate in fast growing markets, markets that would have seen worker
shortages, and would boost wages in those areas and causing a ripple effect to
more outlying areas.
They note the
increased income gap based on education levels, but ignore that not all
low-education jobs can be easily outsourced.
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