Running Out of Food

The Survivalist Blog was asking for ideas the other day so I sent some of this to him.  He hasn't said anything, so I am assuming he is not going to use it.  (?)  Since his readership is on a magnitude larger than mine, I doubt there will be too much harm in some overlap.  In any case the links are getting stale as there continues to be more references to the problem:

There are a number of disaster scenarios you could be concerned with.  However, there are some background disasters that have some threat of occurring by themselves, but also are a factor in many other disasters.

An oil shortage is one.  After the 1974 Arab Embargo, oil shortages were often in the background of many other scenarios: nuclear war, economic collapse, societal collapse, etc.

Outside of social chaos/breakdown, possibly the single larges contributory disaster scenario is food shortages.  In your typical scenario it is often caused by some outside agent:  peak oil for instance. It tends to make what were previously minor crises into major ones.

However, it is a potential crises agent on its own.  Egypt which is in an uproar now, had its first riots in 2008.  The Tunisia riots that sparked this round of Egyptian rioting also had food as one of its primary causal agents:  the spark if you will.

This problem is not one that is likely to go away.

In the recent World Economic Forum report:, Global Risks 2011, was released it noted:

 In the next 10 years, the world population is expected to riser from the current 6.83 billion to approximately 7.7 billion, with most of the growth in emerging economies.  The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAQ) projects a 50%  increase in demand  for water, with other estimates rising to over 40%...Already major grain producing areas in China, India and the United States, for example – depend on unsustainable mining of groundwater.  In some regions, such as North Africa and Australia, climate-related changes of precipitation have already critically reduced the levels of freshwater supply.  In northeast China, one of the country’s main grain-producing regions, climate change could increase drought by over 50% by 2030.

They go on to note that the goal of reducing emissions is also pushing an increase in the use of biofuesls.    They note that this is an unsustainable trade-off.

Which brings us to the issue of previously minor crises, becoming major ones.  The Wall Street had its own, related observations recently:

Evidence of tightening global food supplies grew as the U.S. Agriculture Department cut its estimates for global harvests of key crops and raised some demand forecasts, adding to worries about rising food prices.

Prices of corn and soybeans leapt 4% Wednesday and wheat gained 1%, continuing the broad rally in commodity prices that began in June. With yesterday's gains, prices of corn futures contracts are now up 94% from their June lows; soybeans are up 51% and wheat is up 80%

The USDA's revisions reflect the impact of dry weather in South America and floods in Australia, which have compounded supply constraints that first started to emerge in the middle of last year, when a drought in Russia ravaged that country's wheat fields. The agency also cut estimates for U.S. harvests of corn and soybeans.

At the same time, demand is increasing. The USDA said ethanol producers likely will increase their use of corn, and consumption by emerging market countries continues to be strong.

Evidence of tightening global food supplies grew as the U.S. Agriculture Department cut its estimates for global harvests of key crops and raised some demand forecasts, adding to worries about rising food prices.

Prices of corn and soybeans leapt 4% Wednesday and wheat gained 1%, continuing the broad rally in commodity prices that began in June. With yesterday's gains, prices of corn futures contracts are now up 94% from their June lows; soybeans are up 51% and wheat is up 80%.  From Kilman and Liam Pleven, Wall Street Journal, Prices Soar on Crop Woes (Pay wall likely).

This was followed by this

Corn Pops as USDA Sees Drop in Supply also at WSJ 

The outlook for global grain supplies and food prices grew more precarious Wednesday as the U.S. Agriculture Department said it expects U.S. corn supplies to fall to the near-record low level set 15 years ago.

Red-hot prices aren't cooling the appetite for U.S. grain as in the past, which means U.S. supplies are continuing to be drained at a rapid rate to make ethanol fuel, fatten livestock and meet demand overseas.

"We're just not seeing prices ration demand," said Luke Chandler, head of agricultural commodity markets research at Rabobank. "The markets have changed in a structural way due to ethanol. ... Any relief will take considerable time."

According to USDA projections released Wednesday, the 12.4 billion bushels of corn harvested by U.S. farmers last fall will dwindle to just 675 million bushels by Aug. 31, when a new harvest begins to replenish inventories.

That ending stocks number, which is off 9% from the USDA's January projection, is extraordinarily low in the eyes of food executives because it represents just 5% of annual use, matching the stocks-to-use ratio set in 1996, which was the lowest recorded by the USDA for America's biggest crop since the Dust Bowl era, when the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio fell to 4.5% in 1937.

Which is exacerbated by this:

Catering to New Tastes as Incomes Climb at WSJ

Zambian Beef Processor Expands to Nigeria With Aim of Spreading Out Across the Continent

Under Mr. Swanepoel's leadership over the last two years, Zambeef has built an efficient supply chain and opened a handful of bustling retail stores in one of Africa's toughest but most promising markets. His goal is to turn the Zambian meat-and-produce company into Africa's Coca-Cola for meat, with Zambeef's Master Meats brand in shops and market stalls across the continent.

With annual revenue of $162 million, Zambeef is a bite-size example of companies small and large expanding in Africa, transforming the world's next billion-person market in similar ways to how earlier economic booms changed China and India.