tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post3319384475946405590..comments2023-10-17T03:41:01.759-04:00Comments on reflexiones finales: Complex systems collapsingrussell1200http://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-1028749516278172652015-10-01T05:22:30.036-04:002015-10-01T05:22:30.036-04:00Janet: While we're at it (we = we are) shouldn...Janet: While we're at it (we = we are) shouldn't you have a ":" to bring that all together?<br /><br />If you want to troll, go somewhere else.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-15769215521023534762015-08-29T15:08:32.769-04:002015-08-29T15:08:32.769-04:00I don't have to be polite, so let me respond t...I don't have to be polite, so let me respond to the Grammar Police: Please accept that the ideas presented are far more important than the form they take. Granted, no one wants to read gibberish, but neither are a few mistakes worth the trouble of pointing them out.James M Dakinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01382139289994087931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-56771014065570671662015-08-29T00:18:02.457-04:002015-08-29T00:18:02.457-04:00Please check grammar and spelling. You're (yo...Please check grammar and spelling. You're (you are).<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03432449733262285122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-76228372605514083922015-08-27T05:14:03.467-04:002015-08-27T05:14:03.467-04:00With Romans it is arguing immediate versus underly...With Romans it is arguing immediate versus underlying causes. As with a lot of things, when you start looking at details, the generalist arguments start getting fuzzy. But it is good to remember sometimes that when the "German" (a number were not all that clearly Germanic) tribal groups were sitting on the Western Roman Empire, that it had collapsed.<br /><br />With us, we have been flat-lining, or very close to it, from sometime around the Arab Oil Embargo. The era is preceded immediately by the Vietnam War erra protests and social changes, and as importantly by the huge run up in debt caused by the War. The embargo corresponds roughly with the collapse of Bretton Wood, and a number of economic indicators. A few of the indicators don't really flatline until ~1980.<br /><br />Just as with the Romans, there is some real resurgence after this period, mostly due to the collapse of an arch rival (Soviet Union), and the willingness to run up a lot of debt. We have been in a major coin-shaving period. But as with the Romans, we are very much at risk of losing these immediate gains.<br /><br />We are a cash based empire. I would say the equivalent to us having barbarians sitting on our soil would be when nobody wants our money anymore. Which will be indicated by nobody wanting, or conversely, not being able to take on, our treasury bills anymore, with the oil producers being the main "nobody". That is certainly not the case at the moment. <br /><br />But note, "don't want" and "can't take" give to very different directions the collapse can take. At the moment, we are closer to the "can't take" situation.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-1916363613426824192015-08-24T17:42:02.773-04:002015-08-24T17:42:02.773-04:00Will future historians time our collapse in 2016 o...Will future historians time our collapse in 2016 or one year thereabouts? After all, we successfully installed the Petrodollar and occupied most nations with troops up until now. Or will it be viewed as 1971? Will the 1960's be thought of as the cultural decline which started it all? If we can't even agree when the American empire started to crash and burn, there is no hope for figuring out when Rome's did. Not saying I'm right and you are wrong, you have a more specialists view of history whereas mine in generalized, just that we could argue this particular one for awhile. Peace. :) James M Dakinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01382139289994087931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-61433518071159939942015-08-24T13:59:38.901-04:002015-08-24T13:59:38.901-04:00James: The Romans were fighting Germans well befo...James: The Romans were fighting Germans well before their collapse. The Germans, often acting as Roman mercenaries, did become part of the problem. The Roman infighting goes off and on throughout the Empire period. There is actually an era of stability that comes before the final Western collapse. And it should not be forgotten that Justinian was almost able to regain the Western Empire.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-83610474046597878392015-08-24T08:59:54.145-04:002015-08-24T08:59:54.145-04:00Didn't the barbarians attack AFTER the Romans ...Didn't the barbarians attack AFTER the Romans started to collapse ( long and slow )? Same with political infighting. Once a system reaches its apex and starts to decline-despite some dry professors attempt at complicating the issue and charging $40 for a small book to do so, it is as simple as the peaking of per capita energy use-every thing that follows is a symptom, not a cause. James M Dakinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01382139289994087931noreply@blogger.com