tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post2866369293601879784..comments2023-10-17T03:41:01.759-04:00Comments on reflexiones finales: Collapsing Conspiracy Contradictionsrussell1200http://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-34977325360283525892012-03-06T21:03:27.996-05:002012-03-06T21:03:27.996-05:00SS: Yes, the overlap of possible collapses is worr...SS: Yes, the overlap of possible collapses is worrisome.<br /><br />Look at Rome, you have a severe political collapse (civil war), economic collapse, the economic collapse lead to civic collapse, it is possible there was a population collapse (happens in extended poor economic times), which lead to settling barbarians ont he wrong side of the Rhine, you had a variety of nasty plagues, and then of course you have those pesky Barbarians, and Huns. There is also the possiblity of an end of period volcanic eruption to make sure the Eastern Empire did not reconquer the West, and brought on another wave of barbarians (The Avars).<br /><br />What worries me most in todays setting is that so many of the scenarios could lead to a large nuclear war. It is the most severe existential threat we face.<br /><br />Normalcy bias is an interesting idea. I think it has some merits. In addition, I think Americans have a very strong bias towards exceptionalism. After about 200 years of very successful Empire building, a little bit of exceptionalims is understandable. Its just that the long term track record of previous empires is not very encouraging.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2216751897705338056.post-78197219378580492072012-03-06T20:04:31.812-05:002012-03-06T20:04:31.812-05:00Russell,
The thing that gets me about conspiracy...Russell, <br /><br />The thing that gets me about conspiracy theories is the “…authorities and officials engage in massive deception of the public to achieve their malevolent goals” part. Like you, I see that as a case of three can keep a secret if two are dead. <br /><br />Obviously I believe a number of collapse scenarios are plausible, but most of those aren’t mutually exclusive and one could often trigger another; e.g. a financial collapse triggers a war with Iran and/or North Korea and we get either nuked or EMPed. Or a plague caused collapse triggers multiple nuclear reactor meltdowns as no one is there to maintain them. And so on. <br /><br />I think a factor for those that dismiss all collapse scenarios is normalcy bias. It has never occurred (in modern times), it will not occur. Things will remain our normal. Something pointed out in The Last Pilgrims that I failed to mention in the review is that Bunker discusses just that issue. <br /><br />What I believe will be different about an American vs. a Roman collapse is our dependence on a massive network of interdependent systems. And in general “we” don’t know how to do with out them anymore. <br /><br />I better be going, think I saw a black helicopter out there… <br /><br />V/R, <br />SSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com